Macroeconomics
1st - Consumption Tax Cuts vs Stimulus Payments
Yvan Becard (PUC-Rio) and Mehdi Bartal (UM6P)
2nd - Fear and Volatility at the Zero Lower Bound
Fernando Mendo (PUC-Rio) and Paymon Khorrami (Duke Fuqua)
Finance
1st - Information Leakage from Short Sellers
Fernando Chague (FGV EESP), Bruno Giovannetti (FGV EESP) and Bernard Herskovic (UCLA Anderson)
2nd - Markets Under Siege: How Differences in Political Beliefs Can Move Financial Markets
Saumitra Jha (Stanford University), Peter Koudijs (Erasmus University Rotterdam) and Marcos Salgado (FGV EPGE)
Economic Theory
1st - Monitoring, Disclosure, and Retaliation
Henrique Castro-Pires (University of Surrey)
2nd - Time Trumps Quantity in the Market for Lemons
Humberto Moreira (FGV EPGE), Piero Gottardi (University of Essex and University of Venezia) and William Fuchs (UT and Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)
Applied Microeconomics
1st - Why is Trade Not Free? A Revealed Preference Approach
Rodrigo Adão (Chicago Booth), Arnaud Costinot (MIT), Dave Donaldson (MIT) and John Sturm (Princeton University)
2nd - The Labor Market Effects of Disability Hiring Quotas
Christiane Szerman (Princeton University)
Econometric
1st - Quantile Mixture Models: Estimation and Inference
Luis Alvarez (FGV SP) and Victor Orestes (MIT)
2nd - Was Javert Right To Be Suspicious? Marginal Treatment Effects with Censored Data
Santiago Acerenza (Universidad ORT Uruguay), Vitor Possebom (FGV EESP) and Pedro Sant'Anna (Emory University)
Economic Theory
1° The Judging Game
Alvaro Sandroni (Northwestern University, Kellogg School of Management) and Leo Katz (Upenn)
2º Monetary Policy and Liquidity Management in a Model of Endogenous Network Formation for the Interbank Market
Luiz Carpizo (Stanford University) and Timo Hiller (PUC-Rio)
Microeconomics
1º Health Spending and Health Outcomes: Evidence from a Constitutional Reform in Brazil
Michel Szklo (FGV EAESP), Damian Clarke (Universidad de Chile) and Rudi Rocha (FGV EAESP e IEPS)
2º Technological Progress and Climate Change: Evidence from the Agricultural Sector
Daniel Da Mata (FGV EESP), Mario Dotta (FGV EESP) and Thiago Lobo (FGV EESP)
Macroeconomics
1º Trade Shocks and Higher-Order Earnings Risk in Local Labor Markets
Tomás Martinez (UnB) and Ursula Mello (PUC-Rio)
2º Low-wage Import Competition, Innovation and Growth
Bruno Delalibera (Universitat de Barcelona), Pedro Cavalcanti Ferreira (FGV EPGE) and Heron Rios (Banco Mundial)
Finance
1º Lending Relationships and Currency Hedging
Sergio Leão (BCB), Rafael Schiozer (FGV-EAESP), Raquel Oliveira (BCB e FECAP) and Gustavo Araujo (BCB e FGV-EPGE)
2º A No-Arbitrage Approach to Asset Pricing using Panel Data Asymptotics
João Victor Issler (FGV EPGE) and Fabio Araujo (BCB)
Econometric 2022
1º Semiparametric Analysis of Randomised Experiments Using L-moments
Luis Alvarez (IME-USP) and Ciro Biderman (FGV EAESP)
2º Forecasting Aggregate Inflation using Disaggregates and Machine Learning
Gilberto Boaretto (PUC-Rio) and Marcelo C. Medeiros (PUC-Rio)
Economic Theory
1º “Signaling and Discrimination in Collaborative Projects”
Paula Onuchic (New York University) and Debraj Ray (New York University and University of Warwick)
2º “Arbitrary Bilateral Bargaining in Decentralized Markets for Lemons”
Braz Camargo (FGV EESP) and Bruno Barsanetti (FGV EPGE)
Microeconomics
1º “Church Competition, Religious Subsidies and the Rise of Evangelicalism: a Dynamic Structural Analysis”
Fabio Miessi (Insper) and Raphael Corbi ( FEA USP)
2º “Minimum Wages and the Human Capital of the Next Generation”
Daniel Araújo (UFPE and GAPPE), Bladimir Carrillo (UFPE and GAPPE), Wilman Iglesias (University of Nebraska) and Breno Sampaio (UFPE,CLEAN/Bocconi, GAPPE, and IZA)
Macroeconomics
1º “Incentives for Early Retirement and Pension Reform”
Kathleen McKiernan (Vanderbilt University)
2º “Universal Basic Income in Developing Countries: Pitfalls and Alternatives”
Pedro Cavalcanti Ferreira (FGV EPGE), Marcel Peruffo (Brown University) and Andre Cordeiro Valerio (FGV EPGE)
Finance
1º “The overpricing of popular high-risk stocks”
Fernando Chague (FGV EESP), Bruno Giovannetti (FGV EESP) and Bernardo Guimarães (FGV EESP)
2º “Short-squeeze bubbles“
Bernardo Guimarães (FGV EESP) and Pierluca Pannella (FGV EESP)
Econometric
1º “Inference in Difference-in-Differences with Few Treated Units and Spatial Correlation”
Bruno Ferman (FGV EESP)
2º “Conditional mode: An approach via smoothed quantile regression”
Artur Ongaratto (UFRGS) and Eduardo Horta (UFRGS)
1º “Minimum Dispersion Risk-Neutral Measures and Asset Prices in Incomplete Markets”
Caio Almeida (Princeton University) and Gustavo Freire (FGV EPGE)
2º “Does Stock Manipulation Distort Corporate Investment? The Role of Short Selling Costs and Share Repurchases”
Murillo Campello (Cornell University & NBER), Rafael Matta (SKEMA Business School - Université Côte d'Azur) and Pedro Saffi (University of Cambridge — Judge Business School)
Draw
1º "Identifying Marginal Treatment Effects in the Presence of Sample Selection"
Otavio Bartalotti (Iowa State University), Vitor Augusto Possebom (Yale University) and Desire Kedagni (Iowa State University)
1º “Loss aversion and the welfare ranking of policy interventions"
Sergio Firpo (Insper), Antonio Galvão (Universidade do Arizona), Martyna Kobus (Polish Academy of Sciences), Tom Parker (University of Waterloo) and Pedro Rosa-Dias (Imperial College London)
1º “More than Words: Leaders' Speech and Risky Behavior During a Pandemic" (article published in the American Economic Journal: Economic Policy)
Nicolas Ajzenman (FGV EESP and IZA), Tiago Cavalcanti (University of Cambridge, FGV EESP and CEPR) and Daniel Da Mata (FGV EESP)
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3582908
2º “Labor Unions and the Electoral Consequences of Trade Liberalization”
Emanuel Ornelas (FGV EESP), Pedro Molina Ogeda (FGV EESP) and Rodrigo Soares (Insper)
1º “Money and Politics: The Effects of Campaign Spending Limits on Political Entry and Competition"
Eric Avis(University of California, Berkeley), Claudio Ferraz (PUC-Rio), Frederico Finan (University of California, Berkeley) and Carlos Varjao (Stanford University)
2º “Can Better Peers Signal Less Success? The Disruptive Effect of Perceived Rank on Career Investment”
Rafael P. Ribas (University of Amsterdam), Breno Sampaio (UFPE) and Giuseppe Trevisan (UFPE)
1º “Multi-Product Pricing: Theory and Evidence for Large Retailers in Israel"
Marco Bonomo (Insper), Carlos Carvalho (PUC-Rio e BCB), Krystov (Bank of Canada), Ribon (Bank of Israel) and Rodolfo Rigato (Harvard University)
2º “Dispersion in Financing Costs and Development”
Tiago Cavalcanti (University of Cambridge e FGV EESP), Joseph Kaboski (University of Notre Dame), Bruno Martins (BCB) and Cezar Santos (FGV EPGE)
1º “The Unintended Consequences of Public School Subsidies on Educational Markets"
Leonardo Rosa (Stanford University)
2º “Does Credit Boost Agriculture? Impacts on Brazilian Rural Economy and Deforestation”
Priscila Zeraik de Souza (Climate Policy Initiative/PUC-Rio), Juliano Assunção (PUC-Rio), Pedro Fernandes (CPI/PUC-Rio) and Sérgio Mikio (BCB)
1º “The External Cost of Prostitution: Evidence from Downsizing Red Light Districts in the Netherlands"
Rafael P. Ribas (University of Amsterdam) and Erasmo Giambona (Syracuse University)
2º “Non-Contributory Health Insurance and Household Labor Supply: Evidence from Mexico”
Renata Narita (FEA/USP), Gabriella Conti (University College London,IFS) and Rita Ginja (University of Bergen,IZA)
1º “Bright Minds, Big Rent: Gentrication and the Rising Returns to Skill"
Cecilia Machado (FGV/EPGE), Lena Edlund (Columbia University) and Maria Sviatschi (ColumbiaUniversity)
2º “The Power of the State: National Borders and the Deforestation of the Amazon”
Robin Burgess (LSE), Francisco Costa (FGV/EPGE) and Benjamin Olken (MIT)
1º "(Mis)Allocation Effects of an Overpaid Public Sector"
Tiago Cavalcanti (University of Cambridge) and Marcelo dos Santos (Insper)
2º "Optimal Monetary Interventions in Credit Markets"
Luis Araujo (FGV/EESP) and Tai-Wei Hu (Kellogg School of Management Department of Magagerial Economics and Decision Sciences)
1º "International Competition and Labor Market Adjustment "
João Paulo Pessoa (FGV/EESP)
2º "A Compensating Differentials Theory of Informal Labor Markets: Quantitative Model and Implications for a Developing Country "
Rodrigo R. Soares (FGV/EESP) and Daniel Haanwinckel (University of California at Berkeley)
1º "Migration, roads, and labor market integration: Evidence from a planned capital city"
Jaqueline Oliveira (Clemson University) and Melanie Morten (Stanford University)
2º "Demand Shocks and Firm Dynamics: Evidence from Winners and Losers in Procurement Auctions"
Dimitri Szerman (PUC-Rio e Climate Policy Initiative), Claudio Ferraz (PUC-Rio) and Frederico Finan (UC Berkeley)
1º "DETERring Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon: Environmental Monitoring and Law Enforcement"
Juliano Assunção (Climate Policy Initiative e PUC-Rio), Clarissa Gandour (Climate Policy Initiative e PUC-Rio) and Romero Rocha (Climate Policy Initiative e PUC-Rio)
2º “Winners and Losers in the Labour Market: Heterogeneous Effects of Brazil-China Trade”
Francisco Costa (FGV-EPGE), Jason Garred (London School of Economics) and João Paulo Pessoa (London School of Economics)
1º “The Use of Violence in Illegal Markets: Evidence from Mahogany Trade in the Brazilian Amazon” (artigo aceito para publicação no American Economic Journal:Applied Economics)
Rodrigo R. Soares (PUC-Rio) and Ariaster Chimeli (Ohio University)
https://ideas.repec.org/p/rio/texdis/592.html
2º “Isolated Capital Cities and Misgovernance: Theory and Evidence”
Bernardo de Vasconcellos Guimarães (FGV-EESP); Filipe R. Campante (Harvard Kennedy School) and Quoc-Anh Do (Singapore Management University)
1º “On the implications of strategic uncertainty for expectation formation in macroeconomics"
Marcel B Ribeiro (FGV EESP)
2º “International Reserves Management in a Model of Partial Sovereign Default”
Ricardo Sabbadini (Banco Central do Brasil and FEA/USP)
2º “Family Planning and Development: Aggregate Effects of Contraceptive Use”
Cezar Santos (FGV/EPGE), Tiago Cavalcanti (University of Cambridge and FGV/EESP) and Georgi Kocharkov (University of Konstanz)
2º “Trade Policy in a Dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin Model”
Heron Rios (FGV/EPGE), Pedro Cavalcanti Ferreira (FGV/EPGE) and Alberto Trejos (INCAE)
1º "Stable Firms and Unstable Wages: Theory and Evidence on the Rise in Earnings Instability in the US Economy"
Ana Abras (FEA-USP)
2º "Financial disruption as a cost of sovereign default: a quantitative assessment"
Andre Diniz (Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV) and Bernardo Guimarães (Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV)
1º “Globalization and the Industrial Revolution”
Pedro Cavalcanti Ferreira (EPGE-FGV); Marcelo Santos (Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa) and Samuel Pessoa (FGV)
2º “Estimating Strategic Complementarity in a State-Dependent Pricing Model” (PUC-Rio)
Arnildo da Silva Correa (BCB); Marco Bonomo (EPGE/FGV) and Marcelo Cunha Medeiros (PUC-Rio)
1º "Homophily in Preferences or Meetings? Identifying and Estimating an Iterative Network Formation Model"
Luis Alvarez (IME/USP), Vladimir Ponczek (FGV EESP) and Cristine Pinto (FGV EESP)
2º “Microfounded Forecasting"
Wagner Gaglianone (BCB) and João Victor Issler (FGV EPGE)
1º "BooST: Boosting Smooth Trees for Partial Effect Estimation in Nonlinear Regressions"
Yuri Fonseca (Columbia University), Marcelo Medeiros (PUC-Rio), Gabriel Vasconcelos (PUC-Rio) and Alvaro De Lima Veiga Filho (PUC-Rio)
2º “Component shares in continuous time"
Gustavo Dias (Aarhus University), Marcelo Fernandes (FGV EESP) and Cristina Scherrer (Aarhus University)
2º “Seasonal Weighted Lag Adaptive LASSO"
Lara Nassar Rangel (UFRGS) and Flavio A. Ziegelmann (UFRGS)
1º “Identification of Counterfactuals in Dynamic Discrete Choice Models”
Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues (University of Toronto), Myrto Kalouptsidi (Princeton) and Paul Scott(New York University)
1º "Synthetic Control Estimator: A Walkthrough with Condifence Intervals"
Sergio Firpo (FGV/EESP) and Vitor Possebom (FGV/EESP)
2º "The TZ Robust Nonparametric Frontier Estimator"
Hudson Torrent (UFRGS) and Flavio Ziegelmann (UFRGS)
1º "Nonparametric Estimation of a Generalized Regression Model with Group Effects"
Eduardo A. Souza-Rodrigues (University of Toronto)
2º "Assessing functional form specifications for the Unconditional Quantile Partial Effects in the GMM Framework"
Cristine Campos de Xavier Pinto (Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV), Sergio Firpo (Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV) and Graciela Sanroman (DECON-UDELAR)
1º "Smoothing Quantile Regressions"
Emmanuel Guerre (Queen Mary University of London), Marcelo Fernandes (Sao Paulo School of Economics-FGV) and Eduardo Horta (DEST-UFRGS)
2º “Forecasting Multivariate Time Series under Present-Value-Model Short- and Long-run Co-movement Restrictions”
Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillén (BCB e IBMEC), Alain Hecq (Maastricht University), João Victor Issler (FGV-EPGE) and Diogo Saraiva (FGV-EPGE)
1º “Estimating Networks: Lasso for Spatial Weights”
Pedro Carvalho Loureiro de Souza (London School of Economics)
2º “The Nonlinear Iterative Least Squares (NL-ILS) Estimator: An Application to Volatility Models”
Gustavo Fruet Dias (Queen Mary University of London)
1º "Risk Externalities in Corporate Investment"
Felipe Iachan (FGV EPGE) and Dejanir Silva (University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign)
2º “Tail Risk Exposures of Hedge Funds: Evidence from Unique Brazilian Data"
Caio Almeida (Princeton University), Marcelo Fernandes (FGV EESP) and João Paulo Valente (Yale University)
1º “The Cross-Section of Retail Investors: Tax-Inattention, Performance and Behavioral Biases”
Justin Birru (Ohio State University), Fernando Chague (FGV EESP), Rodrigo Bueno (FEA/USP) and Bruno Giovannetti (FGV EESP)
2º “Volatility Discovery”
Gustavo Dias (Aarhus University), Cristina Scherrer (Aarhus University) and Fotis Papailias (King's College London)
1º “Nonparametric Assessment of Hedge Fund Performance”
Kym Ardison (FGV/EPGE), Caio Almeida (FGV/EPGE) and René Garcia (Université de Montréal)
2º “Systemic Risk in Financial Systems: a feedback approach”
Thiago Silva (BCB), Benjamin Tabak (UCB) and Michel Alexandre (BCB)
1º “The Choice Channel of Financial Innovation”
Felipe Iachan (FGV/EPGE), Plamen Nenov (BI) and Alp Simsek (MIT)
2º “Liquidity Runs”
Rafael Matta (University of Amsterdam) and Enrico Perotti (University of Amsterdam e CEPR)
1º "Short-Selling Restrictions and Returns: a Natural Experiment"
Marco Bonomo (Insper); João Manoel Pinho de Mello (Insper) and Lira Mota (FGV/EPGE)
1º "Distress Resolution Costs and Bankruptcy Risk: Evidence from CDS Markets"
Rafael Matta (University of Amsterdam), Murillo Campello (Cornell University and NBER) and Tomislav Ladika (University of Amsterdam)
2º "Barrier Style Contracts under Lévy Processes: an Alternative Approach"
José Fajardo (FGV/EBAPE)
1º "Improved Creditor Protection and Verifiability in the U.S."
Erasmo Giambona (University of Amsterdam), Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes (EDHEC Business School) and Rafael Matta (University of Amsterdam)
2º “The Effect of Political Alignment on Public Federal Bank Lending”
Sérgio Leão (Banco Central Brasil), João Manoel Pinho de Mello (PUC-Rio) and Cláudio Ferraz (PUC-Rio)
1º “Price discovery and instantaneous effects among cross listed stocks”
Cristina Mabel Scherrer (Queen Mary, University of London)
2º “Violence-related costs and disclosure: why are some firms unwilling to disclose executive’s compensation?”
Fernando Caio Galdi (FUCAPE Business School); Cristiano M. Costa (FUCAPE Business School); Fabio Motoki (FUCAPE Business School) and Juan Manoel Sanchez (University of Arkansas)
1º “Information Design with Recommender Systems”
Daniel Monte (FGV EESP) and Caio Lorecchio (FGV EESP)
2º “Rational Choice with Full-comparability Domains”
Gil Riella (FGV EPPG), Leandro Nascimento (UnB) and Bruno Furtado (Columbia University)
1º “Robust project selection in cost-based procurement”
Rodrigo B. Andrade (FGV EPGE) and Humberto Moreira (FGV EPGE)
2º “Water Wind and Fire: Competitive Equilibrium in Electricity Markets with Renewables”
Rodrigo Moita (Insper) and Daniel Monte (FGV EESP)
1º “Coalitional Expected Multi-Utility Theory”
Kazuhiro Hara (FGV/EPGE), Efe Ok (NYU) and Gil Riella (FGV/ENAE)
2º “Earnings Dynamics: The Role of Learning, Human Capital, Accumulation, and Performance Incentives”
Braz Camargo (FGV/EESP), Fabian Lange (McGill University) and Elena Pastorino (Stanford University)
1º “Optimal Mirrleesian Taxation in Non-competitive Labor Markets”
Lucas Maestri (FGV/EPGE) and Carlos E. da Costa (FGV/EPGE)
2º “Public versus Secret Voting in Committees”
Marcos Yamada Nakaguma (FEA/USP) and Andrea Mattozzi (European University Institute)
1º "Revealed preference and identification"
Leandro Gorno (FGV/EPGE)
1º "Competitive Screening under Heterogeneous Information"
Lucas Maestri (FGV/EPGE), Daniel Garrett (Toulouse School of Economics) and Renato Gomes (Toulouse School of Economics)
2º "Robust Decision-Making"
Vinicius Carrasco (PUC-Rio) and Humberto Moreira (FGV/EPGE)
1º "Simultaneous Adverse Selection and Moral Hazard"
Daniel Gottlieb (The Wharton School) and Humberto Moreira (FGV-EPGE)
2º “Dynamic Matching in Large Markets”
John Kennes (Aarhus University), Daniel Monte (Sao Paulo School of Economics-FGV) and Norovsambuu Tumennasan (Aarhus University)
1º “Slums and Pandemics" (article published in the "Journal of Development Economics")
Luiz Brotherhood (Universitat de Barcelona, BEAT & FGV EPGE), Tiago Cavalcanti (University of Cambridge and FGV EESP), Daniel da Mata (FGV EESP) and Cezar Santos (Banco de Portugal, FGV EPGE & CEPR)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304387822000499
2º “Speculation-Driven Business Cycles”
Saki Bigio (UCLA) and Eduardo Zilberman (PUC-Rio)
1º “Risk Classification in Insurance Markets with Risk and Preference Heterogeneity”
Vitor Farinha Luz (University of British Columbia), Piero Gottardi (University of Essex) and Humberto Moreira (FGV EPGE)
2º “Information Acquisition and Disclosure by a Biased Advisor”
Paula Onuchic (New York University)
1º “Correlation of Types in Bayesian Games”
Luciano Irineu de Castro Filho (Northwestern University)
2º “Random Choice and Learning”
Paulo Natenzon (Washington University in St. Louis)
